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When it comes to the Patriots, I’ve been obsessing over one question for the last week or two, mainly because the expectations around the team have changed so dramatically since the start of training camp:

What would represent a successful season for the 2025 team?

In July, I said the Patriots were going to finish 7-10. (Truth be told, I had to be talked into seven wins. My initial thought was anywhere between five and eight, and I was leaning toward the bottom end of that range before training camp began. The people who heard me say five wins haven’t let me forget it for the last five months.) I remember telling someone if the 2025 Patriots broke .500, they should break out the duck boats (ho ho ho) because that would exceed every expectation anyone outside of Gillette Stadium might have for this team.

Mea maxima culpa. Never been so wrong. (Here’s where I remind you that I’m still pretty good at predicting football games: I’m still in first place in the Boston Globe pick ‘em pool. if I win this year, it’ll be a three-peat. I’m calling Pat Riley to see about the copyright.)

Anyway, with things looking so dramatically different in late December, I started asking a wide swath of people who have either followed or covered the team in recent years for their opinions as to what would make for a truly successful year. Got a variety of answers — and I’ll get to a few in a bit — but the majority answered that the year has already been a success for a few reasons, not the least of which is the fact that they’ve seemingly got the whole thing turned around. You can argue that some of that is the schedule, some of the that is the preternatural play of the quarterback, and some of that is Mike Vrabel and the coaching staff. But the bottom line is that professional football matters again in New England.

A sign I spotted in Nashville earlier this season that spoke to me.

NOW, the counter to that is the idea that this is One Of Those Years. This postseason, there will be no Patrick Mahomes, no Joe Burrow, and (maybe, probably) no Lamar Jackson. Look at the opportunity in front of them! Why Not Us? Don’t you remember 2001? The possibility of doing something great increases dramatically when you are lucky, and for a team that has gotten an awful lot of luck this year, it certainly wouldn’t be out of the realm if possibility. (To get to 11-2, you have to be good, but you also have to be a little lucky. And it’s OK to admit that they’ve been a little lucky.)

One of the best lessons I’ve learned in covering the Patriots over the years is that you always have to remember that it’s never as good as you think it is, and it’s never as bad as you think it is. The truth always lies somewhere in the middle. (Unless you’re talking about the 2007 team, which redefined football hyperbole. Then, it really was as good as you think, and probably more. And the loss at the end was as gutting as you could imagine.) With that in mind, I’d submit that success for the 2025 team also sits somewhere between happy, long-term optimism and short-term hope.

How about a minimum of a 13-4 record, and one playoff win? (I’m not 100 percent sold on them this weekend, but I’ll be damned if they’re going to lose to the Jets or Dolphins.) I think the No. 1 seed, at least as it stands right now, is probably out of reach. (Prove me wrong, Broncos.) If they get the No. 2 seed and are competitive in the first weekend of the playoffs, then that would undeniably represent a successful season. That formula mixes in both schools of thought — a remarkable turnaround that would probably get Vrabel Coach of the Year status, serve as a satisfying short-term answer for those looking for a satisfying end to 2025, and spark some real long-term optimism for 2026 and beyond.

Where I will predict them to win more than seven games.

Anyway, here are a few answers I got from friends who are Patriots’ fans. Let me know what you think in the comments.

I think the season is already a success. It started with us looking at eight wins (very much in doubt) as a success. The point was success was defined by taking a noticeable step forward - both for the coach AND the QB. Was the track upward? The W-L record is just the ledger.

The question is now: How big a step is it going to end up being? First-round loss where they play well and lose a close one? Still a success. Winning a round or two of playoffs with a eight-win preseason forecast? Very large step. Of course, I’d be happy with that.

I honestly already view the season as a massive success, given you’re in year one of a new head coach and you’re coming off a disastrous season, and offseason with Mayo. To win 11+ games and just be in the position to be in the running for the division and top seed is a colossal step forward for one season. They’re not a Super Bowl contender, in my opinion. The schedule has contributed to how they got here, and I think any playoff matchup will more point to areas they need to improve on, whether through development or offseason acquisitions. But the future is absolutely now and the potential of this team going forward is real, and I think that win in Buffalo this year was proof of that

Granted, it would be a far better look to not get sh*tpumped in a playoff game

At the beginning of the season, having a winning record was a success, and that was hoping for 9-8. I was hoping for second place in AFC East, and didn’t think we’d make the playoffs. However, now, with where we are, I would say winning the AFC East and one playoff win would be a huge success for us. I agree that we don’t have all the parts to be an AFC Championship or SB contender, but we have a solid foundation and coaching staff to build off of.

• Was lucky to be a part of this week’s episode of “The Boston Globe Sports Report” with colleague Ben Volin. Here’s the full episode:

• My podcast partner Chris Hogan and I recorded a new episode of “The Patriots Report,” where we looked back at the loss to Josh Allen and the Bills, where it left New England in the AFC playoff picture, the challenge of the Ravens, and more. Hogan wasn’t happy with the officiating:

(He didn’t win any friends in Western New York with this take. It was picked up by a Buffalo message board.)

• Hogan also laid out his position moving forward on the state of the team:

• Wednesday is always a really busy day, but I found time to talk Patriots with my guys “Mannix & Mannix” on 96.3 The Big Jab in Portland, Maine. Good times with good dudes.

• On Friday, I talked about the Patriots and what lies ahead with my pal Dan Rea on WBZ Nightside.

• I wrote about how a playoff-ready quarterback like Josh Allen really exposed some of the soft spots in the New England defense. Is it as easy as getting Milton Williams and Robert Spillane back before the postseason? We;ll see. If not, it could make things awfully dicey for the Patriots when it comes to the playoffs.

• Lots of questions in this week’s mailbag about the loss to the Bills, but there’s also some talk about coverage linebackers, situational football, Philip Rivers, and more.

• Tackling Derrick Henry is often described as a business decision. Meet a couple of the guys who are going to be charged with the task Sunday night.

• THIS story was a blast. I canvassed the New England locker room looking for the answer to a simple question: Once their playing days are over, which guy on the team would make the best coach? Turns out there’s one guy who’s already gotten something of a head start on the idea.

• Josh McDaniels said the lack of offensive pop in the second half of the Bills’ game is on him. “I certainly thought the guys really did a good job of executing certain things in the first half, and made a lot of big plays. And then we really never got into a good rhythm in the second half. And that’s my job. So we’ll figure out why that was.”

• Seventy-two removed from the loss to the Bills, it was clear what happened in that defeat still gnawed at Drake Maye, who is anxious to make things right. “Obviously, it stings. It stings when you don’t come up on the winning side.”

• Robert Spillane won’t play Sunday, plus more tidbits from the locker room.

• One of the more interesting statistical wrinkles when it comes to Sunday’s Patriots-Ravens showdown has to do with both teams’ red-zone issues. Go inside the numbers here.

Christmas Week! Here’s hoping you have your shopping done. It’s going to be a weird few days for coverage. We have access in Foxborough on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. Vrabel will talk all three days, while Drake Maye will have his midweek presser on Tuesday at 5:15 p.m. (He usually talks Wednesday.) No assistant coaches this week. I’ll be driving to New York on Saturday and the team will face the Jets in North Jersey on Sunday at 1 p.m.

Another reminder: My much better half (who wrote an amazing memoir that was released in August) and I will be doing an in-store event together on Feb. 11 at Wellesley Books. If you want to come, you’ve got to buy tickets here. (They’re $6.24 each. A BARGAIN) I will not only sign copies of my latest book,”Bleeding Green” (now in paperback!), but any of my other books. It’s a great excuse to support a great indie bookstore. As always, my books are on sale. Check out my Amazon page with all seven of them here. If you have a copy of my book when you see me, the law requires I have to stop and sign. Those are the rules.

Until next time.